Global vehicle demand is already above 96m units in 2017 and is forecasted to keep growing and reach 100m units by 2019. This growth paints an overall positive picture for Automotive Suppliers. The dramatic vehicle market share loss of developed countries stopped in 2010 and developing country market share stabilizes just above 50%. By 2009 China became the largest vehicle market overtaking the USA and by 2010 developing countries’ share of new vehicle sales reached 54%, dramatically up from 35% in 2006. Within developing markets’ growth there are large variances today: China is still growing fom already high basis, Russia and South America re recovering from a catastrophic decline. The EU loss of global light vehicle share have stopped in 2013 and since then it has been recovering.
From a supplier point of view the picture in the EU is more positive: vehicle manufacturing became a stable net exporter of 2.5m units annually. We expect European production to further increase by 11% until 2022. Part of the production increase is fueled by increased EU sales demand and partly due to export markets, especially China and the USA. We expect premium product manufacturing to increase at a faster pace in Europe, of which 47% is already being exported. Geographic production shift can be observed even within Europe: from peak year of 2007 until 2017 Western European vehicle manufacturing capacity decreased by 7,1% while CEE capacities increased by 38,3%. Until 2022 we expect Western European manufacturing capacities to further decrease by 4,9% while CEE to increase further 33%.
Top Tier Consultants has used a unique forecasting methodology where not only growth itself was forecasted, but groups of companies were defined that over- and underperform the average.
The full study is available upon request